Oil outlook 2008

[yulianto]

source: http://www.stockpickguide.com

Oil has been an influential factor in the global economy, because it
is needed for the industry. Oil price increase will influence global
industry, products price, consumer spending, and inflation. Price of
oil has climbed more than 40% last year(2007), reaching its record
high of $99.29 a barrel on November 21. After achieving that peak,
crude prices gradually decline to the $80 to $90 range. Many analysts
expect it to break the psychologically level of $100 a barrel early in
2008.
Oil prices is mainly influanced by its supply and demand, and
geopolitical risk. To understand this, we must know the numbers.
<div class="center">
<table border="1" class="sgmltable" id="A0922042">
<tr>
<th align="left" valign="bottom">&nbsp;Producers<sup
class="fnr">1</sup></th>

<th align="center" valign="bottom">Total oil <br /

production</th>

<th align="left" valign="bottom">&nbsp;Exporters<sup
class="fnr">2</sup></th>

<th align="center" valign="bottom">Net oil<br />exports</th>

<th align="left" valign="bottom">&nbsp;Consumers<sup
class="fnr">3</sup></th>

<th align="center" valign="bottom">Total oil<br /

consumption</th>

<th align="left" valign="bottom">&nbsp;Importers<sup
class="fnr">4</sup></th>

<th align="center" valign="bottom">Net oil<br />imports</th>
</tr>

<tr>
<td align="left" valign="top">&nbsp;1. <i>Saudi Arabia</i></
td>

<td align="center" valign="top">10.72</td>

<td align="left" valign="top">&nbsp;1. <i>Saudi Arabia</i></
td>

<td align="center" valign="top">8.65</td>

<td align="left" valign="top">&nbsp;1. United States</td>

<td align="center" valign="top">20.59</td>

<td align="left" valign="top">&nbsp;1. United States</td>

<td align="center" valign="top">12.22</td>
</tr>

<tr>
<td align="left" valign="top">&nbsp;2. Russia</td>

<td align="center" valign="top">9.67</td>

<td align="left" valign="top">&nbsp;2. Russia</td>

<td align="center" valign="top">6.57</td>

<td align="left" valign="top">&nbsp;2. China</td>

<td align="center" valign="top">7.27</td>

<td align="left" valign="top">&nbsp;2. Japan</td>

<td align="center" valign="top">5.10</td>
</tr>

<tr>
<td align="left" valign="top">&nbsp;3. United States</td>

<td align="center" valign="top">8.37</td>

<td align="left" valign="top">&nbsp;3. Norway</td>

<td align="center" valign="top">2.54</td>

<td align="left" valign="top">&nbsp;3. Japan</td>

<td align="center" valign="top">5.22</td>

<td align="left" valign="top">&nbsp;3. China</td>

<td align="center" valign="top">3.44</td>
</tr>

<tr>
<td align="left" valign="top">&nbsp;4. <i>Iran</i></td>

<td align="center" valign="top">4.12</td>

<td align="left" valign="top">&nbsp;4. <i>Iran</i></td>

<td align="center" valign="top">2.52</td>

<td align="left" valign="top">&nbsp;4. Russia</td>

<td align="center" valign="top">3.10</td>

<td align="left" valign="top">&nbsp;4. Germany</td>

<td align="center" valign="top">2.48</td>
</tr>

<tr>
<td align="left" valign="top">&nbsp;5. Mexico</td>

<td align="center" valign="top">3.71</td>

<td align="left" valign="top">&nbsp;5. <i>United Arab
Emirates</i></td>

<td align="center" valign="top">2.52</td>

<td align="left" valign="top">&nbsp;5. Germany</td>

<td align="center" valign="top">2.63</td>

<td align="left" valign="top">&nbsp;5. South Korea</td>

<td align="center" valign="top">2.15</td>
</tr>

<tr>
<td align="left" valign="top">&nbsp;6. China</td>

<td align="center" valign="top">3.84</td>

<td align="left" valign="top">&nbsp;6. <i>Venezuela</i></td>

<td align="center" valign="top">2.20</td>

<td align="left" valign="top">&nbsp;6. India</td>

<td align="center" valign="top">2.53</td>

<td align="left" valign="top">&nbsp;6. France</td>

<td align="center" valign="top">1.89</td>
</tr>

<tr>
<td align="left" valign="top">&nbsp;7. Canada</td>

<td align="center" valign="top">3.23</td>

<td align="left" valign="top">&nbsp;7. <i>Kuwait</i></td>

<td align="center" valign="top">2.15</td>

<td align="left" valign="top">&nbsp;7. Canada</td>

<td align="center" valign="top">2.22</td>

<td align="left" valign="top">&nbsp;7. India</td>

<td align="center" valign="top">1.69</td>
</tr>

<tr>
<td align="left" valign="top">&nbsp;8. United Arab Emirates</
td>

<td align="center" valign="top">2.94</td>

<td align="left" valign="top">&nbsp;8. <i>Nigeria</i></td>

<td align="center" valign="top">2.15</td>

<td align="left" valign="top">&nbsp;8. Brazil</td>

<td align="center" valign="top">2.12</td>

<td align="left" valign="top">&nbsp;8. Italy</td>

<td align="center" valign="top">1.56</td>
</tr>

<tr>
<td align="left" valign="top">&nbsp;9. <i>Venezuela</i></td>

<td align="center" valign="top">2.81</td>

<td align="left" valign="top">&nbsp;9. Algeria</td>

<td align="center" valign="top">1.85</td>

<td align="left" valign="top">&nbsp;9. South Korea</td>

<td align="center" valign="top">2.12</td>

<td align="left" valign="top">&nbsp;9. Spain</td>

<td align="center" valign="top">1.56</td>
</tr>

<tr>
<td align="left" valign="top">10. <i>Norway</i></td>

<td align="center" valign="top">2.79</td>

<td align="left" valign="top">10. <i>Mexico</i></td>

<td align="center" valign="top">1.68</td>

<td align="left" valign="top">10. Saudi Arabia</td>

<td align="center" valign="top">2.07</td>

<td align="left" valign="top">10. Taiwan</td>

<td align="center" valign="top">0.94</td>
</tr>

<tr>
<td align="left" valign="top">11. <i>Kuwait</i></td>

<td align="center" valign="top">2.67</td>

<td align="left" valign="top">11. Libya</td>

<td align="center" valign="top">1.52</td>

<td align="left" valign="top">11. Mexico</td>

<td align="center" valign="top">2.03</td>

<td align="left" valign="top">&nbsp;</td>

<td align="center" valign="top">&nbsp;</td>
</tr>

<tr>
<td align="left" valign="top">12. <i>Nigeria</i></td>

<td align="center" valign="top">2.44</td>

<td align="left" valign="top">12. <i>Iraq</i></td>

<td align="center" valign="top">1.43</td>

<td align="left" valign="top">&nbsp;12. France</td>

<td align="center" valign="top">&nbsp;1.97</td>

<td align="left" valign="top">&nbsp;</td>

<td align="center" valign="top">&nbsp;</td>
</tr>

<tr>
<td align="left" valign="top">13. Brazil</td>

<td align="center" valign="top">2.16</td>

<td align="left" valign="top">13. Angola</td>

<td align="center" valign="top">1.36</td>

<td align="left" valign="top">&nbsp;13. United Kingdom</td>

<td align="center" valign="top">&nbsp;1.82</td>

<td align="left" valign="top">&nbsp;</td>

<td align="center" valign="top">&nbsp;</td>
</tr>

<tr>
<td align="left" valign="top">14. <i>Iraq</i></td>

<td align="center" valign="top">2.01</td>

<td align="left" valign="top">14. Kazakhstan</td>

<td align="center" valign="top">1.11</td>

<td align="left" valign="top">&nbsp;14. Italy</td>

<td align="center" valign="top">&nbsp;1.71</td>

<td align="left" valign="top">&nbsp;</td>

<td align="center" valign="top">&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
</table>

<div class="note">NOTE: OPEC members in italics.</div>

<div class="fnt" id="A0922043">1. Table includes all countries
with
total oil production exceeding 2 million barrels per day in
2006.
Includes crude oil, natural gas liquids, condensate, refinery
gain, and
other liquids.</div>

<div class="fnt" id="A0922044">2. Includes all countries with
net
exports exceeding 1 million barrels per day in 2006.</div>

<div class="fnt" id="A0922045">3. Includes all countries that
consumed
more than 2 million barrels per day in 2006.</div>

<div class="fnt" id="A0922046">4. Includes all countries that
imported
more than 1 million barrels per day in 2006.</div>

<div class="source"><i>Source:</i> Energy Information
Administration
(EIA). <a
href="http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/topworldtables1_2.htm"
target="_blank">www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/</a> .</div>
</div>
By looking at the above number (Exporters), we know that OPEC supplies
more than 50% of the world demand. The top three importers are United
States, Japan, and China. All three are the world economy giants.
From the demand and supply law, price will go up if supply is having
trouble. Political conditions affect oil production in Iraq, Nigeria,
Venezuela, and Iran. Iraq is still strugling to recover from decades
of war. Nigerian production is affected by attacks and sabotage.
Venezuelan oil production has never fully recovered since December
2002, when political strife brought Venezuelan production to a halt.
Supply disruptions in Iran, the world's fourth-biggest exporter, is
cause by a dispute with the West over
its nuclear program. Recently, tighter U.S. sanctions have also
weighed on the oil price.
Strong economic growth has resulted in strong oil demand. The Paris-
based International Energy Agency, or IEA - advisor to 27
industrialized nations - sees demand rising by 2.1 million barrels per
day in 2008, an increase of 200,000 barrels per day from its previous
forecast. The emerging market leaded by BRIC (Brazil, Rusia, India,
and China) will still grows high. BRIC is in the top ten of the world
oil consumer in 2006.
So what will happened to the oil price in 2008? Will it reach $100 a
barrel due to higher demand and lower supply? Or it will go down due
to price bubble? From the side of demand and supply, the price
currently does not represents the situation. It is mainly affected by
speculation on geopolitical risks in oil producer's country. Regarding
geopolitical condition which is hard to predict, I think oil price in
2008 will average around $90-$110 per barrel.

source: http://www.stockpickguide.com

[Reagan Revision]

Post by yulianto
source: http://www.stockpickguide.com
to price bubble? From the side of demand and supply, the price
currently does not represents the situation. It is mainly affected by
speculation on geopolitical risks in oil producer's country. Regarding
geopolitical condition which is hard to predict, I think oil price in
2008 will average around $90-$110 per barrel.
source: http://www.stockpickguide.com

Look at your own post. Some of it was lost in translation:-)

Bet edward o'harre on the pump price. I'll tank up at my leisure.
--
"We are being told that a competent, trustworthy president is someone
who brandishes his religion like a neon sign, loads a gun and goes out
hunting for beautiful winged creatures, and tries to imitate a past
president who, by the way, never shot a bird or felt the need to imitate
anybody."

~~ Patti Davis Is Not Flattered by GOP Candidates' Pale Imitations of
Her Father



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